Africa Wearther

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Strong cold front expected to affect Cape Town and the SW Cape on Monday and Tuesday next week with hot conditions over central and eastern areas.

UK Model, 5pm Monday frontal position, pressure and rainfall.

UK Model, 5pm Monday frontal position, pressure and rainfall.

UK Model 2pm Monday,  temperature and windspeed - note hot conditions over the whole country except the SW as NW berg winds are drawn in from the continent ahead of the approaching front.

UK Model 2pm Monday, temperature and windspeed - note hot conditions over the whole country except the SW as NW berg winds are drawn in from the continent ahead of the approaching front.

 UK Model, total rainfall 2pm Monday until 2pm Tuesday.

UK Model, total rainfall 2pm Monday until 2pm Tuesday.

A cold front, that will be particularly strong for the time of year is likely to affect the SW Cape from Monday afternoon until Tuesday afternoon. At this stage, confidence of this weather event is high with all major weather models forecasting that a front will affect the region, the only uncertainty is the exact timing and the strength of the front.

During Monday morning NW winds will freshen over the region and are expected to become strong over Cape Town and other exposed areas during the afternoon and evening. The main front will lead to a period of 2 or 3 hours of moderate rain and at this stage is expected to go through the region late on Monday afternoon or during the evening. By Tuesday morning, the front is expected to have cleared the region, although scattered showers are expected in a fresh W to SW wind until Tuesday evening.  5-10mm of rainfall is expected widely with 20-30mm possible near the mountains.

Climatologically, November is the driest month in Cape Town with only 14mm of rainfall being recorded on average at the airport. (source WMO, http://worldweather.wmo.int/en/city.html?cityId=138)

However so far this month, up until the 16th, Cape Town Airport has received 20mm of rain. With 5-10mm of rainfall expected on Monday and Tuesday, rainfall totals could reach up to 30mm for the month with 10 days remaining. The last time the airport recorded 30mm or more of rain in November was in 2013 when a cut-off low on the 16th and 17th produced 81mm of rain.

Ahead of the front, hot conditions are likely to affect central and north eastern parts of the country as berg winds are drawn in from the continent. The winds are likely to be strong and gusty over central areas and very isolated thunderstorms may develop over north eastern parts of the country. Temperatures could reach the high 30sC or even 40C away from the immediate coast over the Eastern Cape and KZN. Coastal temperatures will be moderated by fresh to strong NE winds.

AfricaWeather will continue to keep you posted on this weather event via our Twitter Feed and Facebook page.

AfricaWeather, Smarter Weather Insights.

Please note this is not a weather warning, only the South African Weather Service can issue weather warnings, for details refer to www.weathersa.co.za/warnings

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